How Safe Is Mexico for Expats?

(AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)

(AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)

How safe is Mexico for expats? If you live in Mexico or are considering becoming an expat there, personal safety is an issue that should be a concern. But how much of a concern?

In November of 2015, Mexican authorities found the bodies of two missing Australian surfers in a burned-out van on a back road in the Mexican state of Sinaloa, home to the Sinaloa drug cartel. Mexican police arrested several low-level drug dealers for the crime, but none were affiliated with the Sinaloa cartel. The story received major attention from U.S. media and once again fueled the public discussion on how safe it is to travel to or live in Mexico.

Mexico is by far the number one tourist destination for Americans, given its proximity to the U.S., weather, history, culture and the warmth of its people. Those ingredients, plus a much lower cost of living, has made Mexico also the number one destination for American expats, representing an estimated 11 percent of all American expats in the world, according to the 2010 Mexican census.

Most expats in Mexico believe that the U.S. media blow crime in Mexico out of proportion, particularly as it affects their daily lives. Their common theme is that crime is primarily confined to major cities and regions of the country – particularly the U.S. border - where drug cartels are competing for dominance. Crime statistics seem to support that view.

Overall, Mexico’s homicide rate is one of the highest in the world with an average of 21.5 reported homicides per 100,000 people, far higher than the 4.7 per 100,000 in the U.S., according to the World Health Organization, which bases its data on 2012 statistics, the latest available. But homicide rates are much higher in areas that experience drug violence.

We looked at the global Homicide Monitor 2015 produced by the Igarape Institute, a Brazilian think tank that breaks out murder rates by city and by country based on the most recent aggregated data, which was 2012 for Mexico.

The border city of Juárez experienced a homicide rate of 61.1 per 100,000 people, which was three times the national average. Another border city, Nuevo Laredo, was even higher, registering a rate of 135.8. In Culiacán, located about an hour north of the resort city of Mazatlan and the home of the Sinaloa cartel, the murder rate was 51.8 per 100,000 people.

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