The world population is shifting, as more and more people from smaller towns abandon them for the bright lights of the big cities.
A new article, “Rus in Urbe Redux,” published in the May 30th edition of The Economist’s online edition, says a growing number of cities around the world should start planning now for drastically smaller populations in the future.
Shrinking cities and towns can be found in many countries, but most notably in the post-industrial rustbelts of the United States, Eastern Europe and Northern England, all hit hard by loss of jobs from globalization. In Germany, for example, 60 of that country’s 107 autonomous cities are expected to shrink over the next five years. In Japan, 20 cities with populations exceeding 300,000 have been steadily losing population since 2005. Even fast-growing China has a few cities that are getting smaller.
Several years ago, the United Nations estimated that one in 10 emerging world cities were losing people. The only region not seeing the shrinking city phenomenon so far is sub-Saharan Africa, but that too will be changing, according to the U.N.
The Economist article points out that cities lose population from migration and demographic change, which can happen at the same time.
The biggest impact on migration has been industrial decline, as former industrial powerhouses feel the effects of globalization, with its relentless global search for lower production costs.
Population shrinkage through demographic changes is happening in most in parts of Asia, where a combination of too few babies and rigid immigration policies cast a bleak future for many smaller towns and cities. In Japan, women have just 1.4 children on average. In neighboring South Korea, the rate is even lower, just 1.2 children. Even China may have a problem down the road. The U.N. estimates that China’s urban population will be declining by 2050.
Japan, recognizing its future, has also begun to review its immigration policies, but progress has been slow so far. The country is now trying to re-populate some of its smaller areas by persuading companies to leave Tokyo.
